Mint Covid Tracker: India’s corona trajectory slowing, with cases doubling in eight days now

Ghughuti Bulletin

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-corona-trajectory-slowing-with-cases-doubling-in-eight-days-now-11587185254396.html

The number of reported covid-19 cases in India rose by 16 percent over the past two days to 13,835, data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) published last evening showed. This is a slower increase compared to the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 28 percent to 11,933.

So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 64 percent (between Sunday evening and Friday evening). This is a slower increase compared to the previous five days, when confirmed cases had risen by 76 percent.

Although India’s covid-19 trajectory has tapered slightly, it continues to be steeper compared to Asian peers such as Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, and Pakistan. India’s curve is flatter than that of several Western nations where the virus has claimed more lives.

India’s case count is now roughly double what it was eight days ago. This is a slower rate compared to a few days ago, when cases were doubling every four days. At the current rate of compounded growth, the number of cases could rise to 20,000 by Tuesday. This trajectory needs to slow down further if India is to avoid getting its hospitals overwhelmed in the next few months.

India’s death toll from covid-19 is rising at a faster pace compared to the case count. The death toll last evening was 452, double what it was six days ago.

At 2,711, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases of covid-19, according to the health ministry update on Friday evening. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

Delhi has the second most number of active cases (1,551), closely followed by Madhya Pradesh (1,186). At 1,072 active cases, Tamil Nadu has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed by Rajasthan (956). The top five states together account for 64 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 90 percent of all cases. Nationally, the active case count was 11,616 as of yesterday evening. These are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days. Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up, more cases could come to light in states where reported cases have been low so far.

Number of active covid-19 cases in India
Number of active covid-19 cases in India
Testing rates and fatality rates in the country.
Testing rates and fatality rates in the country.

So far this week, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat have seen the highest spurt in cases. These three states account for 59 percent of all the new active cases in this period.

The number of active cases have risen from 1,426 to 2,711 in Maharashtra, from 528 to 1,186 in Madhya Pradesh, and from 366 to 909 in Gujarat between Sunday evening and Friday evening.

Changes in cases between Sunday and Friday evening
Changes in cases between Sunday and Friday evening

The top ten districts now account for 44 percent of confirmed cases in the country, data compiled by howindialives.com shows. And the top 50 districts account for roughly 71 percent of the cases.

So far, 406 districts have confirmed cases. Among these districts, Mumbai (2,079 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally, followed by Indore (842) in Madhya Pradesh, Ahmedabad (590) in Gujarat, Jaipur (489) in Rajasthan and Pune (496) in Maharashtra. Hyderabad (407) in Telangana, New Delhi (352), South Delhi (320), Thane (293) in Maharashtra and Chennai (222) in Tamil Nadu are the other top hotspots in the country.

Covid-19 cases in India
Covid-19 cases in India

Most of India’s hotspots are urban affluent districts. The top 15 cities alone account for roughly half of all the covid-19 cases, an analysis shows.

More than 2.2 million people have now been detected as covid-19 patients globally even as several parts of the world, including India, continue to be under lockdown to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes covid-19.

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