The number of reported covid-19 cases in India rose by 18 percent over the past two days to 12,759, data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) published last evening showed. This is a slower increase compared to the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 28 percent to 10,815.
So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 33 percent (between Sunday evening and Thursday evening). This is a much slower increase compared to the previous four days, when confirmed cases had risen by 60 percent.
Although India’s covid-19 trajectory has tapered slightly, it continues to be steeper compared to Asian peers such as Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, and Pakistan. India’s curve is flatter than that of the US, which has emerged as the new epicentre of the global pandemic, with the most number of active cases and deaths at the moment.
India’s case count is now roughly double what it was seven days ago. This is a slower rate compared to a few days ago, when cases were doubling every four days. At the current rate of compounded growth, the number of cases could rise to 20,000 in the next four days. If the same trajectory continues beyond that period, India’s hospitals could get overwhelmed in the next few months.
India’s death toll from covid-19 is rising at a faster pace compared to the case count. The death toll last evening was 420, double what it was six days ago.
At 2,437, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases of covid-19, according to the health ministry update on Thursday evening. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.
Delhi has the second most number of active cases (1,504), closely followed by Tamil Nadu (1,110). At 1,003 active cases, Madhya Pradesh has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed by Rajasthan (873). The top five states together account for 64 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 90 percent of all cases. Nationally, the active case count was 10,824 as of yesterday evening. These are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days. Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up, more cases could come to light in states where reported cases have been low so far.
So far this week, Maharashtra, Delhi, and Madhya Pradesh have seen the highest spurt in cases. These three states account for 58 percent of all the new active cases in this period.
The number of active cases have risen from 1,426 to 2,437 in Maharashtra, from 1,025 to 1,504 in Delhi, and from 528 to 1,003 in Madhya Pradesh between Sunday evening and Thursday evening.
The top ten districts now account for 44 percent of confirmed cases in the country, data compiled by howindialives.com shows. And the top 50 districts account for roughly 72 percent of the cases.
So far, 401 districts have confirmed cases. Among these districts, Mumbai (2,073 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally, followed by Indore (707) in Madhya Pradesh, Ahmedabad (545) in Gujarat, Jaipur (481) in Rajasthan and Pune (473) in Maharashtra. Hyderabad (364) in Telangana, New Delhi (330), South Delhi (320), Thane (293) in Maharashtra and Chennai (222) in Tamil Nadu are the other top hotspots in the country.
Most of India’s hotspots are urban affluent districts. The top 15 cities alone account for roughly, an analysis shows.
More than 2.1 million people have now been detected as covid-19 patients globally even as several parts of the world, including India, have taken severe lockdown measures in a bid to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes covid-19.
Testing criteria in India were stringent so far and tests are being ramped up only now. Given the limited testing so far, it is too early to say whether India’s current trajectory will sustain, rise, or flatten in the coming days.