The number of reported covid-19 cases in India rose by 16 percent over the past two days to 20,471, data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) published last evening showed. This is a slower rate of increase as compared to the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 19 percent to 17,656.
So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 27 percent (between Sunday evening and Wednesday evening). This is slightly faster compared to the previous three days, when confirmed cases had risen by 26 percent.
Although India’s covid-19 trajectory has tapered slightly over the past couple of weeks, it continues to be steeper compared to Asian peers such as Japan, Indonesia, and Pakistan.
Singapore, which had a much flatter curve than most other countries has seen a renewed wave of new infections that has steepened its curve a bit. Compared to Western nations where the virus has claimed more lives, the trajectories of most Asian countries including India have been flatter so far.
India’s case count is now roughly double what it was nine days ago. This is a slower rate compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days. Deaths have also seen slower rise. India’s death toll from covid-19 as of last evening was 652, roughly double what it was nine days ago.
Still, at the current rate of compounded growth, the number of cases could rise to 30,000 in the next four days. This trajectory needs to slow down further if India is to avoid getting its hospitals overwhelmed in the next few months.
At 4,248, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases of covid-19, according to the health ministry update on Wednesday evening. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.
Gujarat has the second most number of active cases (2,033), followed by Rajasthan (1,546). At 1,498 active cases, Delhi has the fourth-highest number of active cases, closely followed by Madhya Pradesh (1,364). The top five states together account for 67 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 92 percent of all cases.
Nationally, the active case count was 15,859 as of yesterday evening. These are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days. Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up, more cases could come to light in states where reported cases have been low so far.
Over the past seven days, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh have seen the highest spike in cases. These three states account for 69 percent of all the new active cases in this period. Over the same period, fatalities have also gone up the most in these three states. These states account for 63 percent of all covid-related deaths over the past seven days.
So far, 432 districts have confirmed cases in the country. Over the past two days, Mumbai, Pune, Ahmedabad, Surat and Jaipur districts have seen the biggest spike in confirmed cases nationally. These five districts account for 51 percent of new cases over this period, data compiled by howindialives.com shows.
Among districts, Mumbai (3,746 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally, followed by Ahmedabad (1,501) in Gujarat, Pune (945) in Maharashtra, Indore (923) in Madhya Pradesh and Jaipur (720) in Rajasthan. These top five districts now account for 37 percent of confirmed cases in the country.
New Delhi (484), Hyderabad (479) in Telangana, Thane (477) in Maharashtra,Surat (415) in Gujarat and Chennai (378) in Tamil Nadu are the other high-burden districts which figure in the list of top ten districts. The top ten districts account for 47 percent of the confirmed cases nationally.
Most of India’s hotspots are urban affluent districts, with richer states hit harder so far.
More than 2.6 million people have now been detected as covid-19 patients globally even as several parts of the world, including India, continue to be under lockdown to contain the pandemic.